Weekly Recap: Week 1
3 games down, 79 more to go for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Looking back it was an up and down week, as the Thunder started off hot and cooled down by the end of the week, finishing 2-1. The Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons will meet the Thunder one more time each this season, while the Utah Jazz will meet the Thunder three more times. Though the loss to the Jazz leaves a sour taste in the mouths of many Thunder fans, as it certainly does mine, there are many positives we, as a fan base, and the team can pull away from this week.
Offense: B-
The Thunder were able to push the tempo this week, as we expected them to do, amassing 57 fast break points and creating mismatches in the front court leading to fouls and easy baskets. The Thunder also attacked the paint well, despite their size disadvantage, keeping pace with their opponent in all three games this past week. The Thunder managed to score quite a few points, and currently sit at 9th in the league for points per game as a team. Of those points scored, the Thunder put together a string of good quarters, up until the Jazz game, and some timely shots, most notably Jeff Green’s go-ahead layup with 2.5 seconds left in regulation to lift the Thunder to a win over the Detroit Pistons.
The Thunder lacked good shooting, however. The ball movement is excellent, very sharp and crisp and leading to open looks, the players simply aren’t finishing. Kevin Durant has matured a lot since last year, but cannot continue to force shots in the waning minutes of games until he finds his groove later this season. Green needs to bury his open looks, and Daequan Cook cannot force big threes early in the shot clock. Shooting 39.9% as a team will not earn the Thunder to 50+ wins that they are their fans so eagerly strive for.
The Thunder need to continue to move the ball well. They are currently next to last in assists. The passing is there, the shots just have to be made. The guys can’t get selfish, either. Westbrook is doing his part, but the assists need to spread to the rest of the team. Assists are generally a good benchmark for how well a team jells and how much quicker they are than the opposing defense. Both of those are areas where the Thunder excel, so the assists should, in theory at least, follow.
Despite the poor shooting the Thunder have found ways to win 2 games, which bodes well for this young team. As the season progresses the players will find their shots, leading to more points and more wins. The Thunder also played a solid offensive 4th quarter against the Bulls, something they had trouble with down the stretch last year. And finally, turnovers were a point of pride for this young team. The Thunder currently lead the league with the least turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball will lead to more solid possessions, and if they improve their shooting Thunder opponents could be in for some long nights. The Thunder have also given up the least amount of steal per game in the NBA.
Defense B
The kinks are still being worked out on defense as well. The Thunder are showing a lot of energy on defense, and are making the plays that we expect them to be making. The Thunder are second in steals, and are doing an excellent job of jumping in the passing lanes to break up plays. They look quick, they’re not giving up a whole lot of easy buckets (except to Derrick Rose, but who can guard him?), and they look fresh. The block party isn’t in full swing yet, but Serge Ibaka and company are starting to get into gear. Not to mention the 2 huge blocks Thabo Sefolosha had in the 4th quarter against the Bulls, both on fast breaks.
The problem on defense is, much like the offensive woes, shooting. The Thunder are scraping the bottom of the barrel, allowing their opponents to shoot an unearthly 47.5% against them, including 50%+ to both Detroit and Utah. Maybe it is just blind luck, especially so on the Pistons side, as they hit everything even when it was heavily contested, but the Thunder are going to have to find a better way to close out of their defenders.
The paint area is also key for the Thunder. They will have to be more aggressive in the paint area to force misses and pull down more rebounds, especially because of their height disadvantage. More rebounds could lead to fast breaks, which, as we have seen by now, is a practically unstoppable facet of the Thunder’s offensive attack.
Other positives:
Free throw shooting and foul discipline have both been superb. The Thunder are playing quick and getting to the line, and when they’ve done that in droves as compared to their opponent they have come away with a victory.
Energy has been exciting. We knew we would get a good dose of high energy exciting basketball from this young quad, and they’ve given it to us. Great for ratings.
Final Breakdown:
Shooting: D+ Not the worst, not the best. Time will help this category soar as the Thunder find their mid-season form.
Rebounding: B+ It’s tough to compete when you’re smaller, but the Thunder need to find a way to thoroughly outrebound their opponents to ensure wins. No second chance points.
Passing: A Crisp, quick, and fancy. Taking care of the ball is key, and the Thunder did they perfectly.
Free-throws: A- Could’ve hit a few more, but the percentages are high and they’re leading to wins.
Foul Discipline: A Don’t give them anything free, but take everything they give you.
Clutch: B- Fell off against the Jazz and a bit against the Pistons, but they stayed strong throughout games other than that.
Keep Thundering Up my friends.
*All statistics courtesy of ESPN.com
-Justin Wright
From the Stripe: The Importance of Free Throws
[picappgallerysingle id="8175382"]
Free throws will be aq huge part of the Oklahoma City Thunder offense this season.
We saw it last year, especially in the playoffs, and we’ve seen it twice already this season: Free-throws are important for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Points from free throws have propelled the Thunder to multiple wins, and have accounted for both the Thunder’s wins this season heading into their third regular season game against the Utah Jazz. The Thunder currently lead the league in free throws made and attempted per game, 37.5-45.5 per game on the season.
The Thunder were 37-44 (84.1%) against the Detroit Pistons on Friday night and 38-47 (80.9%) Wednesday against the Chicago Bulls from behind the stripe in two wins this season. Free throws have easily accounted for the scoring difference between the team each night. The Pistons were only 16-20, while the Bulls were only 13-22. This huge discrepancy in free throws is showing two things that the Thunder are doing well, and also exposing one major weakness in the Thunder’s offense right now.
The Thunder are playing much faster and much harder than any team in the NBA right now. Their youth, speed, and aggression has led to 55 fouls committed against them, most of those on shooting plays or while in the bonus. As players fight for good shots down low, slashes hard through the lane, or Kevin Durant uses his Kobe Bryant-esque rip move, the Thunder go to the line in numbers. They’re discipline from the line, though not stellar yet, will get them through many games, and if they continue to improve on their free throw shooting they will be hard to stop. This is especially evident in the fast break, when the Thunder are most effective. The Lakers, in the playoffs last year, resorted to fouls on the fast break when the Thunder had numbers. From an officiating standpoint, when a defender tries to make a play on a much quicker player, it looks like a foul, and more often that not it is called as one.
The Thunder’s defense has been improving ever since Coach Scott Brooks took over 17 games deep into the 2008-2009 season. Brooks preaches a defense first style of game play. The Thunder have played solid defense thus far, but have not gotten into foul trouble, something that will help them create deficits in games. As long as the Thunder aren’t giving away free points, they are in good shape. Their offense has not quite yet gotten the chance to blossom into its fullest, and yielding nothing on defense will be instrumental in winning those close games, especially as Thunder players flood the foul line on the offensive side.
Wins by free-throws do expose one weakness of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offense right now: shooting. The Thunder are shooting a touch under 40%, the standard benchmark for an average shooting percentage. If the Thunder do not pick it up, especially when a team like the Pistons turns red hot (good defense, hands in the face, good mismatches, all outside shots, the Pistons were simply locked in), it could turn, and almost did, disastrous for the Thunder. They are getting open looks, especially Jeff Green, but he must finish if the Thunder are going to have a successful season.
Get fouled, get to the line, and get the win. Thunder Up!
-Justin Wright
Jeff Green: A Legacy Challenged
[picappgallerysingle id="8429121"]
Not re-signing Jeff Green could be a mistake by the Thunder front office.
Jeff Green has been a staple for the Oklahoma City Thunder over the three years of his career. Now, in the early days of the 2010-2011 season, Jeff Green’s contract status has already been dealt with: Sam Presti and the Thunder will not offer Jeff Green a contract extension. Jeff Green will officially become a restricted free agent after this season. The Thunder have the privilege of offering Green a match on any contract any other team makes, but there is no guarantee that Green will sign.
What does this mean for the Oklahoma City Thunder? The Thunder will now risk losing one opf their hardest working players, one of their dependable defenders, an offensive threat, and a stable, friendly face within the locker room.
Jeff Green has decent numbers, not those of superstars, but decent nonetheless. He has averaged 14.1 points and 5.8 rebounds on 34.0 minutes per game over his career. Green, in his 4th year, has improved every single year since his selection at 5th overall in the 2007 NBA Draft. He has protected the ball well, averaging a touch under 2 turnovers per game during his career, and has added 1.7 assists per game. This season, Green has given the Thunder 21 points, including 2-5 from behind the 3-point arc, and adding 1 steal, 1 block, and only 1 turnover.
So what is Green downside? It’s not his shooting, as he has improved his career percentage from 42.7% his rookie season to 45.3% last season in a category that generally improves with experience. It’s not his defense, as Jeff Green is a very intelligent basketball player, using his skill to compensate for his size. He constantly gets into passing lanes, and puts himself in the right place at the right time, very rarely getting beat and yielding less than an average 3 fouls over his career.
What it boils down to is size. Jeff Green stands at 6’8″, undersized at the power forward position. Green was originally listed as a small forward when coming into the NBA, but had to change back to power forward, his natural position at Georgetown, when he was placed on the same Seattle Supersonics squad as the talented Kevin Durant. College allows for a guy at 6’8″ to have some success, especially in a fast break offense, but it does not translate well to the NBA.
Green makes up for his size not only with his intelligence but also his athleticism. Green is an extremely versatile player, with the ability to handle the ball well everywhere on the court, and the shooter’s touch to shoot from anywhere on the floor. He rarely takes bad shots, he just has not found the ability to finish on all of them, something that comes with experience. A lot of his shots draw good iron and then spin out, and he usually finds open space on the floor. Green has also improved his inside game, with the ability to post up against much taller defenders with success.
This season is going to be an interesting one. If Green has a great year it could be disastrous for the Thunder, as another team could offer him a contract the Thunder cannot match. The team will possibly be able to size to the line-up, but they will lose the athleticism, the versatility, and the intelligence that few other players possess. The locker-room will lose a great teammate and a guy who has had a great career playing second fiddle to Kevin Durant. The fans will lose an exciting player who has helped bring the Thunder on the fast break. Kevin Durant will lose a close friend, a guy who he has grown up with and shared the good and the bad with, from last year’s amazing turnaround season to the two years they struggled to put up wins.
All-in-all, only time will tell. Jeff Green’s legacy remains in tact for now, but could be challenged after the season’s end. Green’s potential is best realized in Oklahoma City, and he has expressed interest to stay in Oklahoma City. However, basketball is a business, and sometimes business takes precedent over love. Jeff Green needs to stay a Thunder player, though. Hopefully Sam Presti will realize that Green is an asset this team cannot lose.
-Justin Wright
The Wild Wild Northwest
The NBA’s Northwest division was the most highly contested last season, with 4 of the 5 teams making the playoffs and combining for a total of 206 wins, the most of any division. Despite being the division of death last season, the top two teams, the Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets, did little to help themselves this past offseason, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Oklahoma City only got better.
The question now becomes: Who comes out on top? After strong seasons from the Jazz, Thunder, Blazers, and Nuggets, one can only think that this season will be hardly different, considering the few changes that occurred on rosters in the Western Conference. What this divisions outcome, one that will greatly affect the Western Conference Finals outlook, will boil down to is team chemistry.
Denver Nuggets
Good team chemistry isn’t exactly a term I would use to describe the Denver Nuggets this season. Face of the franchise Carmelo Anthony went through a “change of scenery” debacle similar to that of LeBron James’, though his wishes to join another team fell through this summer. Now, with the Nuggets sitting at 1-0, Carmelo has once again expressed his desire to leave Denver in favor for another team. Carmelo is slowly turning into a cancer for the Nuggets, and unless they can part ways with him soon, he could negatively affect the team down the stretch. Anthony could turn into a Terrell Owens type figure who, despite his great play in games, is a constant disruption from the general direction of the team. Anthony serves as the glue to an already stout line-up in Denver.
All-in-all, unless Denver parts ways with Anthony before Christmas, which I do not see them doing, their locker room atmosphere, along with their increasing age, could hinder their overall performance in the 2010-2011 season.
Prediction: 42-40, 3rd in the Northwest, playoff berth (7 seed)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz locker room lost a big leader from last season, watching Carlos Boozer leave Salt Lake City and sign with the Chicago Bulls. The Jazz did pick up several players to replace the rebounding dominance of Boozer, namely Al Jefferson,
but can they pick up the load that Boozer carried for the Jazz. Deron Williams is clearly the face of this framchise, but who else will step up and carry the load for the Jazz?
Another issue for the Jazz is depth. Considering the threat of injuries, as Raja Bell and Andrei Kirilenko both spent much of last season unable to play, and as Mehmet Okur’s recovery continues, the Jazz could be up for a long season. Their roster does not have the type of depth to support a successful record over 82 games, especially so if injuries decimate the make up of the starting roster.
Prediction: 36-46 4th in the Northwest Division, no playoff berth
Minnesota Timberwolves
There were very few good things that could be said about the Minnesota Timberwolves last season, except the valiant play of Kevin Love may have kept them from falling off the face of the Earth. There is more upside to this team this season, but not much. Kevin Love is more experienced, and could if given any help at all, be a great power forward in the league. Michael Beasley, one of the new arrivals in St. Paul, could do some damage and help Love out, but Beasley has been known to disappoint since his days at Kansas State. At the point guard position it seems that Luke Ridnour has emerged out of nowhere, and it will be interesting, though don’t hold your breath, if Ridnour kept it up and played strong basketball all season as an offensive threat.
This team has a lot more going on for them this season, but in this division you have to be the best to beat the best, and the best are damn good.
Prediction: 34-48 5th in the Northwest, no playoff berth
Now for the good stuff
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers had a great season last year, finishing 6th in the Western Conference. The Blazers look poised to have another strong year, behind the continued excellence of Brandon Roy. The Blazers are still lacking that dominant presence in the paint, and without another top notch small forward or guard to run with Roy, things look ominous. Greg Oden, who has been a huge mystery to the NBA thanks to injury after injury, could be the key to the Blazers season. He is currently slated to make a return in November. During his absence, LeMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby will take up the slack, and they did a fine job of doing just that in their first two games.
This team will be able to play great half court basketball, but will they be able to run with the young, high-flying Thunder? They need more guard play besides just Brandon Roy.
Prediction: 50-32, 2nd in the Northwest, playoff berth (4-5 seed)
Oklahoma City Thunder
They snuck up on everyone last year, even their own fans and coaching staff, and found their way into the team’s first playoff berth in Oklahoma City. Now, one year older, the team looks poised to give everyone, maybe even the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, a run for their money. Behind the strong play of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and company, it looks like this might be the Thunder’s year.
Injuries will be the only demon to this young team. The chemistry is high in the locker-room, the players treating the team like a college squad. With all the upside and promise this team shows, almost everyone is buying into the hype. With the scoring prowess of Durant, and the high energy run-and-gun style of basketball they played, backed by outstanding defense, the Thunder could take it all this year.
Prediction: 55-27, 1st in the Northwest, playoff berth (2 seed)
It’s going to be a fantastic year for this very talented division. Only time will tell who the real winner is.
-Justin Wright
Weekly Tip-Off: October 25
[picappgallerysingle id="8567278"]
2009-2010 Coach of the Year Scott Brooks looks to lead the Thunder to another playoff run.
The preseason is over. And while a 4-3 record doesn’t look that great for the Thunder, consider this: Everyone is 0-0 again. And with the regular season about to kick off here over the next few days, the beginnings of a run to the 2011 NBA Playoffs take form for the Oklahoma City Thunder. With the season opener on Wednesday, the Thunder will be 1 step out of 82 closer to their valiant return to the playoffs.
This week is going to be a big week, starting Tuesday with the NBA Kickoff, and continuing Wednesday into the Thunder’s home opener against the Chicago Bulls. 3 games this week, and a way for the Thunder to really set the tone for 2010-2011.
On a side note, this Wednesday at 4:00PM CDT I will be guest appearing on www.chasingthegold.com talking about the Thunder as a part of their NBA Preview 2010-2011 show. Tune in if you can.
The Games:
Tuesday, October 27th, 7:00PM CDT Chicago Bulls @ Thunder on ESPN
2009-2010 Record: 41-41, 8th in the Eastern Conference, 1-1 against the Thunder
The Bulls made a huge move by acquiring F Carlos Boozer, but Boozer is currently sidelined with a broken hand, and will sit out for this game. This bodes well for the Thunder, as a 1-2 punch underneath along with Joakim Noah could have had disastrous results for a Thunder team still trying to get their swagger within the paint. The Thunder will likely rely on their core three guys: Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Jeff Green to get things going.
[picappgallerysingle id="8550888"]
Derrick Rose is a tough threat to stop.
The match-up that really intrigues me in this game will be at the point: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Both coming out of the 2008 Draft Class, the two have begun to isolate themselves from the pack as the future elite point guards of the league. Speed on speed, it will be interesting to see which of them emerges as the stronger of the two. Let’s not forget, these guys were teammates this summer for Team USA, and Rose started over Westbrook. Westbrook might play a chip on his shoulder for that reason.
Key to the game: Rebounding The Bulls were 1st in the NBA in rebounding last year… but the Thunder were right there with them. If the Thunder can control the boards on both sides of the court they will create opportunities for a win.
Friday, October 29th, 7:00PM CDT Thunder @ Detroit Pistons on FoxSports-OK
2009-2010 Record: 27-55, Did not make playoffs, 0-2 against the Thunder
The Pistons are getting old, but never underestimate a team like that. They still have great players, and can get a lot done, but don’t pose the same threat they did several years ago. Big Ben Wallace still stands in the paint, which means a physical game in the paint, and with Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, you never know how well they will shoot from the floor. But the young Thunder should be able to outpace the Pistons.
[picappgallerysingle id="8096046"]
Richard Hamilton was one of the NBA’s best shooters, until plagued by injuries last year.
This could be a game where Jeff Green exposes the youth and inexperience of F Jonas Jerebko. Jerebko is in his second season, and is not much of a defensive stickler. If Green gets open space, and has the shooter’s touch, it could be a big night for #22. The key match-up in theis game will be seeing how Serge Ibaka handles the aggressiveness of Ben Wallace in the paint.
Key to the game: Defense The Pistons allowed opponents to shoot 48% last season. If the Thunder play the stingy defense they usually do they should come away with a win.
Sunday, October 31st, 6:00PM CDT Utah Jazz @ Thunder FoxSports-OK
2009-2010 Record: 53-29, 2nd in the Northwest Division, 5th in the Western Conference, 1-3 against the Thunder
The Jazz posted an 8-0 record in the preseason, but, as I mentioned earlier, that’s preaseason. This game is extremely important for the Thunder, as it’s their first divisional game of the season, and they need to set a good tone for themselves.
The new jerseys in Salt Lake City are just in time for the departure of their former starting Power Forward Carlos Boozer. Boozer’s departure solidifies Deron Williams as the face of the franchise in Utah. Williams and Boozer were the key contributors to the team last season, so it will be interesting to see how they will fare without Boozer. It looks like Paul Millsap will replace him, and Millsap will definitely do some damage.
[picappgallerysingle id="8447377"]
Deron Williams is hard to stop. Period.
The game looks to be a hard fought battle, and could be the beginning of how the Northwest will be won, especially with the Jazz opening against the Denver Nuggets. This game’s key match-up will be watching Kevin Durant against all odds, and seeing how he handles things after his experience this summer in a game with playoff implications.
Key to the game: The Paint The Jazz have a similar size deficiency down low as the Thunder. If the Thunder can be more agressive, pulling down rebounds, blocking shots, and playing hard-nosed defense, they should be able to pull away with a win, even against the prolific scoring of Deron Williams.
[picappgallerysingle id="8428897"]
It’s that time again. Get excited.
Well Thunder fans, it’s time to kick off the 2010-2011 season. Here’s to a good one
-Justin Wright
